In Nigeria today, only two kinds of people remain: those who think Peter Obi will never be president and those who think he’s about to become president. 

The only thing both sides agree on is that if it ever happens, it must happen in 2027.

Since the opposition to President Bola Tinubu formed a coalition to mount a united front with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigerians have grown increasingly excited about the prospects for 2027. At the very least, the opposition’s unity could prompt the government to take action.

The opposition’s alliance has already rattled some nerves—none more visibly than Nyesom Wike’s, who suffered what appeared to be a complete meltdown on national TV. And that was only week one.

It will take a unified front of the same political players who once used those levers to entrench themselves to threaten Tinubu’s strategy of securing a second term by capturing and controlling, even when they had clearly failed the people.

Two years is a long time in politics—equivalent to a decade in an individual’s life. Between now and 2027, several forces will come into play: international players, divine providence, and the law of unintended consequences—what Newton described as equal and opposite reactions.

The 2027 political landscape may appear complex, but it’s not. The permutations are relatively straightforward.

Nigeria is stuck. Our political options have barely changed since independence. The dilemma has always been: do we want a government led by an idiot surrounded by fools, or one led by a fool surrounded by idiots? Every republic has offered some variation of that tragic formula.

Tinubu is stuck. He has failed to convince Nigerians that his reforms will eventually lead to better living conditions. This failure is largely self-inflicted, marked by a lack of self-awareness, discipline, and an empathetic, inclusive approach to both the pain and the promise of reform. Having lost credibility, Tinubu has reverted to what he knows best: setting the stage to “grab, snatch, and run.”

Peter Obi is stuck. Without sweeping electoral reform, unseating a sitting government demands a landslide. This may have been feasible if the incumbent were someone as passive as Goodluck Jonathan. But in this case, a fox lives in Aso Rock. Dislodging him will require nothing less than political shock and awe. As things stand, Obi’s style, penetration, and political machinery aren’t enough to trigger the tsunami needed to declaw the fox. He needs an extra oomph. Can he find it in the coalition?

Atiku Abubakar is stuck too. Like Obi, 2027 is his last realistic opportunity to run for the presidency. If he fails, he’ll be too old to run in 2031—not that age has ever deterred African politicians. If Joe Biden can do it, why not Atiku? In Nigerian parlance, it would take ‘divine intervention’ to convince Atiku to let go of his decades-long dream of becoming president. But if he insists on running in 2027, it will hurt the North’s chances in 2031—especially if it means sidelining a viable southern candidate like Obi.

At this stage, everyone is trying to unplug themselves from their current position and squeeze through the narrow gate that leads to Aso Rock. The only way to get there is through compromise—strategic give-and-take.

For the opposition to wrest power, they must present a team so formidable, so overwhelming, that no rigging machinery can undo its momentum.

Such a team must be carefully woven—thread by thread—from Nigeria’s patchwork of fault lines, egos, and entrenched interests. It must account for the nation’s deep-seated flaws and the foundational sins that continue to haunt it.

Unless there’s a major bombshell in the next two years, Nigerians will likely head into a 2027 election with Peter Obi on one side and Bola Tinubu on the other. Their running mates will depend on how the northern winds blow as the election nears.

From a geopolitical standpoint, if two southern candidates face off in 2027, it preserves the North’s strategic advantage in 2031. The real question is whether the rising generation of young northern politicians can persuade Atiku to step aside.

The odds say they can. They might go all in if they offer Obi a trusted northern ally and bank on his promise to serve just one term. If Obi wins, the North will wait until 2031. If he loses and Tinubu secures a second term, it will still be an advantage for the North.

If Tinubu’s reforms succeed and the heavy lifting is done by 2031, the next election will be relatively easy for whoever the North presents. But if those reforms cannot deliver the promised trillion-dollar economy, the desperation of 2027 will feel like a prelude to the chaos of 2031.

Think Nigeria is stuck in 2027?

 Wait until you see 2031.

Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo teaches Post-Colonial African History, Afrodiasporic Literature, and African Folktales at the School of Visual Arts in New York City. He is also the host of Dr. Damages Show. His books include “This American Life Sef” and “Children of a Retired God.” among others. His upcoming book is called “Why I’m Disappointed in Jesus.”