Peter Obi, former Anambra governor and the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, has indicated his willingness to serve a single four-year term if selected as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate in the 2027 general election. 

Speaking during a live X Spaces session on June 30, Obi remarked, “If the agreement is one term, I will leave on May 28, 2031 — not even May 29.”

The prospect of Obi becoming Nigeria’s next president in 2027 has generated considerable excitement among his millions of followers. However, beyond this enthusiasm lies a critical question for every Nigerian: Who would succeed Obi after his proposed single term? 

Nigeria’s recent political history offers cautionary lessons. The 2015 election saw voters, disillusioned with then-President Goodluck Jonathan, shift their support to Muhammadu Buhari, despite reservations about his leadership record. Buhari’s presidency and the administration of his successor, Bola Tinubu, have left many Nigerians deeply dissatisfied. 

Today, a similar sentiment appears to be shaping the political landscape. Some voters, keen to remove Tinubu, are willing to support a coalition that includes many of the same politicians instrumental in elevating both Buhari and Tinubu to power. 

Notable among these figures are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai; former Attorney General Abubakar Malami; former Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi, who served as transport minister under Buhari; former Osun governor and ex-interior minister under Buhari, Rauf Aregbesola; former APC national chairman John Odigie-Oyegun; and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Tambuwal. 

Recently, these politicians gained significant influence within the ADC and are now positioning themselves to challenge Tinubu’s dominance. Nigerians should approach this coalition with caution and critically assess the political records of its key players. 

Particular attention should be given to el-Rufai, a politician whose public statements and governance style have attracted significant scrutiny. His tenure as governor of Kaduna was frequently criticised for policies that many observers believe exacerbated religious and ethnic tensions, particularly in the Christian-dominated communities of Southern Kaduna. 

El-Rufai’s administration faced widespread criticism for reforms that, according to several reports, led to the dismantling of ancient traditional chiefdoms in Southern Kaduna, the conversion of territories belonging to other ethnic groups into Fulani emirates, and the reallocation of ancestral lands in Southern Kaduna to Fulani herders to graze their cattle. 

Should Obi pursue a coalition path, careful consideration must be given to his choice of running mate. The prospect of el-Rufai holding a prominent role in such an arrangement raises critical questions about Nigeria’s future political trajectory. El-Rufai’s political style and rhetoric are seen by critics as unlikely to foster the national cohesion the country needs. 

For example, following Tinubu’s declaration as president in 2023, el-Rufai reportedly told a gathering of Muslims: “…because religion was used, Allah granted Tinubu victory. What we successfully achieved in Kaduna (with the Muslim-Muslim ticket) has now been replicated across the country. No liar will ever contest as a Christian and win an election ever again.”

Nigerians should reflect carefully on the implications of Obi potentially selecting el-Rufai as his running mate. A politician widely criticised for worsening religious and ethnic divisions should not be allowed to use Obi’s candidacy as a platform to advance his political agenda. 

Beyond Obi, many of the other politicians within the ADC are seasoned career politicians who have been long-standing players in Nigeria’s political landscape and contributors to the country’s current state. These individuals will likely remain around long after Obi’s tenure, and Nigerians must be vigilant to ensure that they do not steer the country in the years that follow. 

In 2027, Nigerians must resist the temptation to vote solely out of opposition to Tinubu. While dissatisfaction with the current leadership is understandable, it would be misguided to assume that an alliance with the same politicians whose recent actions contributed to Nigeria’s current challenges will now deliver the meaningful changes that Nigerians seek.  

A critical, long-term view of the coalition is essential. Nigerians cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of 2015 by replacing one unsatisfactory administration with another driven purely by the pursuit of power and lacking a coherent vision for the day after May 29, 2031.

Maduekwe runs Discussing Africa Media. Write him: mrmaduekwe@gmail.com