A professor of Political Science, Femi Otubanjo, has warned that nuclear weapons have evolved from being mere instruments of warfare to becoming major causes of international conflicts and crises.

Mr Otubanjo, a research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, gave the warning while delivering a foreign policy lecture organised by the institute in Lagos on Tuesday.

In the lecture titled, ‘Nuclear Weapons: From Instrumenta Belli to Causae Bellorum’, the professor listed the consequences of nuclear war to include immediate mass casualties, nuclear winter, environmental devastation and psychological trauma.

He added that the consequences would  include economic collapse, political disorder and a potential threat to the survival of organised human civilisation.

Mr Otubanjo said that although discussions on nuclear weapons often appeared distant to many Africans, the reality was that such weapons posed an existential threat to all humanity.

According to him, no region of the world would be spared the devastating consequences of a total nuclear war.

He urged greater public awareness and international commitment toward nuclear restraint, warning that humanity could not afford complacency in the face of such a grave threat.

Mr Otubanjo noted that since 1945, nuclear weapons had occupied a unique position in international politics because of their unparalleled capacity for destruction, deterrence and political influence.

“The emergence of nuclear weapons transformed the strategic environment of the 20th Century and continues to shape the international system in the 21st century. Their existence altered the distribution of power, encouraged doctrines of deterrence and generated unprecedented fears regarding the survival of humanity,” he said.

The professor argued that while nuclear deterrence had helped to prevent direct military confrontation among major nuclear powers, controversies surrounding the acquisition, deployment and prevention of nuclear capabilities had increasingly become sources of conventional wars.

He added that the controversies had become sources of diplomatic crises, sanctions and preventive military actions. According to him, nuclear weapons have moved from being mere instruments of war (instrumenta belli) to becoming causes of war (causae bellorum).

Mr Otubanjo cited the longstanding tension between the U.S and Iran as an example of how nuclear issues had become sources of international friction and conflict. According to him, relations between the two countries have remained turbulent since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, with Iran’s nuclear development programme constituting a major point of contention.

Mr Otubanjo noted that disputes over Iran’s nuclear ambitions had triggered diplomatic crises, economic sanctions, international negotiations and recurring security concerns. He said that these demonstrated how nuclear issues had increasingly become causes of conflict rather than mere instruments of warfare.

The professor said that nuclear strategy and international nuclear politics could be understood through deterrence theory, balance-of-power theory, and national-interest theory.

Mr Otubanjo said deterrence theory suggested that states refrained from aggression when the costs outweighed potential gains, adding that the concept became especially influential during the Cold War. This, he said, was due to the “second-strike capability” and the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction.

(NAN)