The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has recently unveiled a crucial and urgent X-ray of our economy. The report, Nigeria’s Rebased GDP: Structural Insights and Policy Imperatives, confirms the stark reality of stagnant real growth despite a nominally larger GDP. 

The NESG’s data-driven diagnosis is alarming: a shrinking industrial base, an over-reliance on low-productivity agriculture, and a dangerously low revenue-to-GDP ratio of just 2.6%.

This vital diagnosis has set the stage perfectly for the nation’s prescription: Nigeria’s forthcoming Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), a plan that promises to be the most ambitious and, crucially, investable climate strategy in our history.

While the NESG report detailed our structural weaknesses, the direction of the new NDC 3.0, being diligently crafted by the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC) and a host of stakeholders, reframes these challenges as our greatest opportunities. It signals a major strategic pivot, moving beyond incremental policies to tackle the core inefficiencies of our linear economy. At the heart of this new approach is the systemic integration of the Circular Economy, a transformational move that turns it from a niche concept into a national economic imperative, with the potential to reshape Nigeria’s economic landscape.

An industrial renaissance, built on green foundations
The NESG report rightly warned of a worrying de-industrialisation, with the industrial sector’s share of GDP having fallen to a mere 16.7%. In response, the forthcoming national climate strategy should be set to champion a green industrial renaissance. The vision is to leapfrog outdated, carbon-intensive models and build a modern industrial base fit for the 21st century.

Central to this new approach will be establishing robust domestic value chains for the green economy. We anticipate a strong policy focusing on Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), creating a framework to manage and recycle renewable energy components. Investments in solar panel assembly and electric vehicle production are not just theoretical; they can create an estimated 500,000 to 1 million jobs in the next five years, significantly boosting employment in high-quality, sustainable sectors.

A revolution in food and farming
Agriculture’s resilience was a key insight from the NESG report, but its low productivity remains a drag on growth. With agriculture constituting 27.8% of GDP, the investable NDC 3.0 holds great promise for transforming our food systems by aggressively tackling post-harvest losses and promoting climate-smart practices.

The emerging strategy champions “waste-to-wealth” models, particularly through the development of community-based biorefineries that can convert agricultural residues into valuable organic fertilisers and clean energy. Techniques such as precision irrigation and building out agro-processing capacity can significantly increase productivity, benefit rural communities and enhance national food security.

Unlocking capital with an investable strategy
The new NDC is smartly designed to pay for itself by attracting massive outside investment. Acknowledging the fiscal limits highlighted by the NESG, the plan creates a de-risked pathway for capital by launching a national green investment facility to make green ventures a safer bet for private investors. This approach will be amplified by leveraging proven tools like Sovereign Green Bonds and advanced Public-Private-Producer Partnership (PPPP) models.

This innovative PPPP model brings manufacturers (producers) to the table as key partners, making them directly responsible co-investors in building and funding the very recycling systems their products require. This comprehensive strategy transforms Nigeria’s climate ambitions into a clear, bankable, and compelling case for global finance.

A just transition with unprecedented job creation
Ultimately, economic strategy is about people. While the NESG report painted a grim picture of eroding welfare, the forthcoming NDC 3.0 charts a course for inclusive growth. With the informal sector comprising a massive 42.5% of the economy, a core principle of the new plan is ensuring a Just Transition, a key element that ensures the benefits of the green economy are shared by all.

The ‘waste-to-wealth’ initiatives at the heart of the circular economy strategy hold the potential to create hundreds of thousands of new, formal green jobs. This focus on job creation is a key aspect of the NDC 3.0, ensuring the benefits of a green economy are shared by all. By embedding green skills into our national curriculum, we are preparing our youth for the jobs of tomorrow, fostering a sense of optimism about the future.

What it will take: The four pillars of success
The path ahead is clear, but transforming this vision into reality requires a concerted, nationwide effort built on four critical pillars.

Unwavering political will & policy coherence
This is the absolute foundation. The private sector needs to be confident that regulations like the EPR framework will be implemented and remain stable over the long term. This requires strong enforcement from agencies like NESREA and seamless collaboration across the Ministries of Finance, Trade & Industry, Agriculture, and Power.

Strategic investment & financial de-risking
The government’s primary role is to create an environment where private capital can flow. This means operationalising a blended finance model and implementing specific, targeted policies. Key actions must include establishing a clear Green Bond Framework to attract investors, implementing tax incentives for sustainable investments, enhancing regulatory support for a robust carbon market, and fostering the Public-Private-Producer Partnerships needed to fund major projects.

Foundational infrastructure & technology
A circular economy is physical. It requires heavy investment in modern waste management infrastructure beyond simple landfills, including materials recovery facilities (MRFs) and commercial-scale composting and biogas plants. The success of this green industrial base is also directly tied to the availability of reliable and increasingly clean power.

Public buy-in & human capital development
This transformation requires the active participation of the entire population. A massive public awareness campaign is needed to change mindsets around waste and consumption. Simultaneously, we must partner with vocational schools and universities to develop curricula for the new green jobs that will be created, ensuring a Just Transition that formally integrates and empowers workers from the informal sector. The success of this strategy is contingent on the collective action and buy-in of all Nigerians.

A nation poised for a green future
With the draft NDC 3.0 now poised for its final technical review and validation based on the invitation to the public by NCCC, the call to all stakeholders is clear: to engage robustly in this review process, ensuring the final document is not just ambitious, but investable, inclusive, and truly nationally owned. This is AGESI’s call.

Nigeria has reached a pivotal moment. The diagnosis of our economic challenges is clear, and a credible, promising treatment plan is emerging. By embracing the Circular Economy as our core economic strategy and committing to the four pillars of implementation, Nigeria is poised to plug its economic leaks, revive its industrial base, secure its food systems, and create a more prosperous and resilient future for all its citizens.

AGESI is a pan-African action platform accelerating the continent’s green economy transition through visionary leadership, policy reform, and sustainable investment.