Gamblers lose millions of dollars as betting sites fail to predict emergence of Pope Leo XIV

On Polymarket, over $21 million worth of bets were staked on the conclave election.

Ahmed Oluwasanjo • May 8, 2025

Robert Francis[Credit: X.Com]

The majority of gamblers who staked millions of dollars predicting who would emerge as the new pope—following high odds placed on some potential candidates by betting sites—lost their money with the surprise emergence of Pope Leo XIV on Thursday evening.

Known as Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, the new pontiff, who took the name Leo XIV after his election, was an obscure candidate who was not listed among the potential successors to the late Pope Francis, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, on any betting sites.

On Polymarket, over $21 million worth of bets were staked on the conclave election, in which Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle were considered the leading candidates.

On Thursday morning, Mr Parolin led with 27 per cent odds, while Mr Tagle came second with 23 per cent. Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Peter Erdo placed third, fourth, and fifth with 11, 10, and 7 per cent odds, respectively.

On Kalshi, where over $8 million was staked, Mr Parolin led with 29 per cent odds, followed by Mr Tagle’s 22 per cent and Mr Pizzaballa’s 10 per cent.

The odds fluctuated among the projected top contenders as the conclave election, featuring 133 cardinals from across the globe, progressed.

When the white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel chimney—after two earlier black smoke signals on Wednesday and Thursday morning—some bettors likely anticipated they had made a huge fortune.

However, Pope Leo XIV eventually emerged as the new leader of the Catholic Church, demonstrating the long-standing unpredictability of conclave elections and leaving gamblers who staked thousands of dollars on high-odds candidates in shock.

Pope Leo XIV’s surprising emergence is reminiscent of his predecessor, Pope Francis, who also defied projections in 2013 when he was elected instead of Cardinal Angelo Scola, then widely regarded as the favourite.

Pope Leo XIV is the 267th Catholic pontiff and the first American to lead the Church. Born in Chicago on September 14, 1955, the 68-year-old pontiff was made a cardinal by Pope Francis on September 30, 2023.

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