An Advisory for Nigeria’s Leaders and Partners on the Landmark Climate Strategy in Preparation

As Nigeria puts the final touches on its Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), the nation stands on the cusp of a fundamental paradigm shift. The strategy currently being finalized is more than a climate pledge; it is an investable blueprint for national transformation, poised to redefine Nigeria’s economic trajectory for decades. By placing the Circular Economy at its core and preparing to adopt a clear, absolute emissions target, Nigeria is crafting a national strategy built on bankable opportunities, not burdens. This article serves as a strategic advisory for our nation’s leaders—government ministers, private sector titans, and international partners—on the significance of this forthcoming strategy and how to prepare for its successful implementation.

The Strategic Shift: From Compliance to Economic Opportunity

The forthcoming NDC 3.0 will represent a decisive reframing of climate action as a powerful engine for economic growth. The planned transition from a relative, business-as-usual target to a fixed absolute reduction target (20% unconditional, 47% conditional by 2035) will provide the unprecedented clarity and predictability that serious investors require.

The genius of this emerging strategy is the central role of the Nigeria Circular Economy Roadmap. The plan moves beyond incremental greening to a systemic industrial transformation. By designing waste out of our systems, keeping materials in use, and regenerating our natural capital, we can unlock immense efficiencies, build resilient local supply chains, and foster a new generation of Nigerian innovation. This approach provides the coherent, investable logic needed to turn national challenges into streams of economic value.

The Proposed Architecture of Investment: Building Trust and De-risking the Future

For capital to flow at scale, it requires certainty and confidence. Recognizing this, the draft NDC is built around an 8-Pillar Investment Framework that serves as a proposed architecture of trust for all partners. It is designed to proactively answer the investor’s primary question: “How will my capital be managed effectively?”

The answer will lie in three layers of assurance. First, governance will be anchored at the highest level by the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), ensuring political will and streamlined coordination. Second, the framework will act as a disciplined “engine,” ensuring every potential project is systematically vetted against clear criteria. Finally, a commitment to radical transparency through a robust MRV system, aligned with global ISO standards, will guarantee that every investment and every outcome can be tracked credibly. This structure is our commitment to de-risking Nigeria’s green future, making it safe and attractive for investment from the moment the NDC is launched.

The Tangible Opportunity: From Sectoral Plans to Bankable Projects

This framework will not be theoretical. It will be a direct conduit for channeling capital into tangible projects across seven priority sectors. The opportunity is best illustrated by flagship initiatives currently being modeled, such as the Lagos Waste Valorization Facility.

This is the blueprint for turning a liability into an asset. Our financial models, based on a blended finance structure, show that such a project is not only environmentally critical but highly profitable, projecting an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of over 18%. The final NDC will be populated with a pipeline of such projects that promise a triple bottom line return for our planet, our people, and our prosperity.

Advice and Recommendations for the Final Preparatory Phase

To ensure the NDC 3.0 is launched with maximum impact, all stakeholders must act now, during this final preparation stage.

For Government Ministers (The Enablers): Your role is to ensure the final document is bold and its implementation is seamless.

1. Champion Ambition: Ensure the final draft of the NDC maintains the strong, clear targets and the central role of the Circular Economy. This clarity is essential for investors.

2. Prepare for “Day One”: Use this preparatory period to pre-emptively dismantle regulatory silos. The Circular Economy Inter-Ministerial Committee (CEIMC) should be convened now to harmonize policies so that implementation can begin immediately upon the NDC’s submission.

3. Finalize Fiscal Incentives: The framework for Green Bonds and a national Green Finance Taxonomy must be finalized now, so they can be launched concurrently with the NDC to immediately signal market readiness.

For Nigerian Private Sector Leaders (The Engines): Your role is to prepare to seize the commercial opportunity the moment it is formalized.

1. Anticipate and Align: Begin aligning your corporate strategies with the emerging themes of the NDC. The direction of travel is clear; early movers will capture the greatest market share in resource efficiency and green technology.

2. Develop Your Pipeline Now: Do not wait for the final submission. Start developing bankable project proposals based on the draft framework and engage with the NCCC. Being first in the pipeline will be a significant advantage.

3. Shape the Ecosystem: Use your voice through industry associations to support the finalization of key policies like the legally binding EPR scheme. A strong policy environment benefits the entire private sector.

For International Investors & Development Partners (The Catalysts): Your role is to prepare your mechanisms to deploy catalytic capital swiftly and effectively.

1. Structure for Co-Investment: Use this time to design your financial instruments to move beyond traditional aid. Prepare blended finance facilities, guarantees, and first-loss tranches that are ready to de-risk private investment from day one.

2. Align with the Central Hub: Recognize the NCCC as the forthcoming central hub for climate finance. Align your own strategic planning with the NDC’s 8-pillar framework now to ensure seamless partnership post-launch.

3. Pre-Invest in Bankability: The most critical support you can provide right now is to fund the Project Preparation Facilities (PPFs). Investing now in the feasibility studies and financial structuring for key projects will mean there is a pipeline of de-risked assets ready for major investment the moment the NDC is submitted.

Nigeria is on the verge of tabling a world-class strategy for a sustainable and prosperous future. The diligent work of this preparatory phase is our opportunity to ensure that when this blueprint is revealed to the world, we are all—government, business, and partners—ready to build it, together.

Dr Eugene Itua is the executive director of Africa Green Economy and Sustainability Institute (AGESI).