President Bola Tinubu will have been in office for two years by the end of next month. This is one of the longest and most consequential two-year periods in Nigeria’s peacetime history. From that day on May 29, 2023, when President Bola Tinubu launched Tinubunomics at Eagle Square, Nigeria has been undergoing long-needed structural reforms in every facet. I will chronicle some of these as concisely as possible.

Pre-May 29, 2023

Before May 29, 2023, Nigeria, unknown to many of its citizens, was sitting precariously on the edge of a high cliff. A cliff that was gradually built due to our reluctance as a country to ditch many unsustainable practices and face our stark realities boldly. The Nigerian federation was increasingly struggling under the burden of multiple subsidies, including fuel subsidies, naira subsidies, electricity subsidies, and numerous other tangible and intangible subsidies across different sectors of the economy.

These subsidies dug a deep hole in our treasury, and we often had to borrow to sustain them. This meant that as of June 2023, Nigeria was expending 97 per cent of its revenue to service debts. NNPC Ltd was incurring huge losses by continuing to subsidise PMS. The CBN was undergoing a chronic haemorrhage and had a $7 billion backlog of unsettled FX obligations hanging around its neck, while struggling to maintain the Naira at a grossly undervalued rate, which encouraged rent-seeking.

Nigeria’s economic picture under Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu took unpopular but drastic steps when he removed fuel subsidy and liberalised the foreign exchange market, allowing market forces to determine the exchange rate. These twin landmark decisions are expected to spike inflation, with food inflation being the major driver. Nigerians had to endure a severe increase in the cost of living, and even some companies, including multinational entities, experienced discomfort. The initial economic headwind was severe, but President Bola Tinubu, a determined leader, stayed the course and weathered the storm.

Nature, they say, favours the brave and the resilient. Tinubu’s brave navigation of the economic turmoil that came with the subsidy removal and FX liberalisation began to yield undeniable fruits in the latter part of 2024. These fruits include:

1.⁠ ⁠Drastic increase in domestic crude refining capacity: Following the removal of PMS subsidy, the Dangote Refinery and the government-owned Port Harcourt refinery were able to confidently begin PMS production, knowing that they would sell their products based on the prevailing market price. The President facilitated a deal to enable refiners like Dangote to obtain domestic crude oil priced in Naira.

Thanks to the competition in the deregulated oil sector, the price of PMS, which was sold for over N1200 per litre in late 2024, has steadily decreased to an average of N890 per litre and is expected to drop further if current crude oil prices persist. Petroleum product scarcity is now a thing of the past, with hoarding or smuggling of products to Nigeria’s neighbouring countries now being very unattractive. 

2.⁠ ⁠Stabilisation in cost of living: In the heat of the economic storm that followed the fuel subsidy removal and the liberalisation of the Naira, prices of goods and services, especially food items, were increasing almost hourly. This drove the food inflation rate to more than 40 per cent, far above the average monthly headline inflation, which stood at 34.8 per cent as of December 2024, before the NBS carried out a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

However, as the PMS price continued to decline, along with increased adoption of the cheaper alternative CNG, food inflation began to ease. A very significant reduction in the price of popular staple food items was noticed across the country. The decision of the Tinubu administration to open a 150-day duty-free window in July 2024 for essential food imports, including maize, husked brown rice, and wheat, as part of the Presidential Accelerated Stabilisation Advancement Plan, also contributed to stabilising food prices once the food items began to arrive in Nigeria’s ports. 

It is also instructive to add that improved security across many agrarian communities, especially in the Northwest, where farmers initially abandoned their farms due to pervasive banditry, led to their return following a monumental military offensive against the bandits. Grain Markets in bandit hotbeds like Birnin Gwari reopened with farmers flooding the market with their harvests. In the first quarter of 2025, almost all food items experienced a price reduction. 

3. Record inflow of revenue to the three tiers of government: Following the bold move to end fuel subsidies and stop the arbitrary pegging of the Naira, the revenue available to the Federation Account for sharing by the three tiers of government more than doubled, with many states almost tripling their FAAC revenues. This increase is a chunk of the revenue accruing into the federation account that is not always distributed but saved. This revenue windfall has led many states to reduce their appetite for commercial loans. More revenue in the hands of the three tiers of government means more investment in infrastructure and social services for the people.

⁠4. ⁠Nigeria is becoming a favourite destination for foreign investors: Following a string of monetary reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria, with the full support of the President, Nigeria’s monetary ecosystem has witnessed a new lease of life. The CBN has cleared the monetary swamp hitherto encumbered by many bottlenecks and unwholesome practices, which often deterred investors from Nigeria’s financial sector. The CBN’s sanitisation of the foreign exchange market has made the naira largely free from destructive speculation, with restrictions on FX transactions now a thing of the past.

As a result of these reforms, Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020. This improvement is demonstrated in Nigeria’s latest Eurobond issuance in December, where the $1.7 billion issuance was subscribed four times more than the offer Nigeria intended. The Eurobond issuance, which garnered over $9 billion in orders, clearly demonstrates strong investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy. To cap it off, Fitch Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s outlook to Stable from Negative and maintained Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘B’. 

5.⁠ ⁠Nigeria’s economy is experiencing a massive trade surplus. Thanks to the bold decisions of the Tinubu administration, Nigeria is now enjoying a significant trade surplus. In 2024, Nigeria recorded a total trade volume of N138 trillion, the highest in our country’s history. This figure represents a 106% increase compared to that of 2023. In dollar terms, this translates to $89.9 billion. Despite the significant depreciation in the value of the Naira recorded in 2024 compared to 2023, this volume of trade shows that Nigeria’s trade volume surged by 22.1 per cent in 2024 when converted to dollars. 

Nigeria exported goods worth N77.4 trillion in 2024, compared to N35.96 trillion in 2023. This rise in exports, following a challenging 2023, indicates that the reforms instituted by President Bola Tinubu are yielding immediate results, especially in the area of petroleum exports, which accounted for 71 per cent of our total exports in 2024. The concerted efforts of the military with the full backing of the President to tackle crude oil theft in the Niger Delta led to Nigeria’s average crude oil production (excluding condensate) rising to over 1.5 million barrels per day. 

With an import value of N60.6 trillion in 2024, it means Nigeria’s balance of trade was N18.86 trillion that year, up from N6.09 trillion recorded in 2023. This is a sign that the Nigerian economy is starting to recover. 

6. Nigeria’s Net Reserves surge: Nigeria’s foreign reserves have also seen a significant increase since President Bola Tinubu took office. Despite clearing more than $5 billion in verified inherited FX backlog last year, the CBN managed to increase Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves from $35.09 billion on May 30, 2023, to over $40.19 billion by December 2024. The difference is just $5.1 billion over 18 months. The reduction in the gross external reserve noticed in the first quarter of 2025 is a result of settling many debt obligations that were due, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment. 

As impressive as this movement in the gross external foreign reserves is, considering what the CBN had to pass through to achieve that, the above picture does not tell the whole story. The Net Foreign Exchange Reserves (NFER) tells a better story of our precarious situation back in 2023. As of the end of 2023, Nigeria’s Net Foreign Exchange Reserves were just a mere $3.99 billion. Less than two years later, the NFER has climbed to $23.11 billion. The NFER adjusts gross reserves by accounting for near-term liabilities, such as foreign exchange (FX) swaps and forward contracts, to provide a picture of the actual foreign exchange (forex) available to meet immediate external obligations. 

7. Reduced Budget Deficit: The fruits of President Tinubu’s many reforms are also evident on the fiscal side, with a marked reduction in Nigeria’s budget deficit, despite a historic increase in the total budget sum. In 2025, the budget deficit is 4.17 per cent down from 6.2 per cent recorded in 2023. The ratio of the 2025 budget deficit to GDP is 3.89 per cent, which is lower than the average of five per cent before now. This means that, even though the budget deficit will be financed through borrowing, the amount the government borrows in 2025 is less than before, relative to the country’s GDP. This signals the Tinubu administration’s intention to be more financially prudent and gradually reduce borrowing over time.

8.⁠ ⁠Nigeria is recording increased investment inflows and improved company profitability. Over the past year, Nigeria has seen increased investment inflows into various sectors of the economy, including the oil and gas sector, financial sector, manufacturing, and solid minerals. As a result of the deliberate reforms instituted by the President to remove bottlenecks in the oil and gas sector and incentivise investment, Nigeria in 2024 alone has received $13.5 billion in final investment decisions (FIDs) from global oil and gas companies only. This represents 75 per cent of FIDs announced across the African continent. Beyond oil and gas, the solid mineral sector consistently sees an influx of serious investment in value-added activities for lucrative solid minerals.

In the manufacturing sector, many greenfield investments are also being made, with some existing companies announcing expansions in their operations. Already, many manufacturing firms have posted record profits in the previous financial year. Financial institutions are reporting record gross profits, with the capital market experiencing a sustained bullish run. All these indicate one thing: solid confidence in Nigeria’s economy, and, of course, in Tinubunomics!

Daniel Bwala is the Special Adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Media and Policy Communication